A much more reliable guide to selecting terms in any model, including ARIMA models, is to use cross-validation or an approximation to it such as the AIC. The
auto.arima()
function from the forecast package in R uses the AIC by default and usually chooses a reasonably good model for forecasting. If users wish to experiment with other models, use the AIC for comparison not significance tests of the coefficients.источник
AIC = Akaike’s Information Criterion
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.